A long December

The GMV was initially intended strictly for study in laboratory environments, for proposed biological weapon program use. In 2019, the study was still in early stages, with laboratory scientists still working to develop an antigen. Accidentally released from the Wuhan Virology Laboratory, the GMV went live.

Comparison to the R0 of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic:

The press often cites the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918, when referencing the current pandemic. While it cannot be overstated that this is the worst health crisis the world has faced in over 100 years, this is where the similarity between the two pandemics stop.

The 1918 pandemic had a relatively low mortality rate of about 1.8% and a slow rate of transmission, taking 1-2 years to reach a MR of 50 million.

The current pandemic has an extremely high MR of about 16.9%; and in just the 30 days following release, MR is already at 3 million and rising. Since the GMV went active, the Chinese government has placed under military quarantine a total of about 768 million people: a total amount 1/3 greater then the total of number of people infected in the 1918 pandemic in a 2 year period. The 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have had an R0 ranging from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. This means that for every person infected, that person could be expected to infect another 1.4 to 2.8 additional people.

Comparison to the R0 of the GMV

The R0 of this Bio-weapon is currently showing itself to be R3.02-R4.08. Previous calculations of pandemic modeling were based on an established R0 of 2.2, based on past pandemic data.

This recent development could potentially double any prior established calculations, should this new average hold. However, data suggesting a higher R0 should be viewed cautiously, because not enough time and data have been collected to conclusively prove that the higher R0 is a stable representation of the GMV.

However, under no circumstances, should this GMV be considered to be akin to the Spanish flu of 1918; the potential implications are far worse.

Personal Preventive measures:

Although there is nothing that is 100% effective, the use of N-95 face masks, protective eyewear, personal hand sanitizer and disposable rubber gloves can help minimize the chances of contact with IC.

The data provided herein, will present a clear picture: laboratory specialists created a genetic manipulation of the coronavirus, thus creating a new GMV/bio-weapon capable of pandemic level spread.

Virus Profile:

Genetic Modification of the Virus (GMV):

The confidence of this being a GMV, as shown with BLAST testing results [redacted], is high.

BLAST provides proof that the virus envelope of those two separate registered bio-agents is 100% identical. Virus envelopes act like genetic markers; they allow us to tell if the virus resulted from genetic manipulation inside a laboratory environment or if the virus mutated spontaneously outside a laboratory environment. In the latter case, perforation of the virus envelope would be evident under examination. In this case, there is with 100% certainty, no envelope mutation.

In contrast, there is absolutely no scenario in a naturally occurring manner, wherein the coronavirus could fortuitously acquire two separate HIV genetic sequences, without causing a mutation of the Virus Envelope. The only way the virus envelope could obtain HIV sequencing and still contain an identical envelope, is if the sequencing structures were added in a controlled laboratory environment. BLAST testing also shows the insertion of two distinct components of sequencing from HIV-1 into the GMV, creating a virus capable of infiltration thru human lung tissue via ACES2 receptors, capable of causing multiple internal organ failure simultaneously. In lung tissue, the GMV causes the host lungs to swell with blood in late stage progression. If multiple organ failure does not occur first, host lungs may hemorrhage, which accounts for the large swaths of blood often seen beside the dead.

The GMV also has a very high rate of genetic mutation. Data shows the propensity of this GMV to mutate hundreds of times in a single day, making an effective vaccine or any practical mass treatment near impossible to manufacture. Despite the high mutation factor, this GMV does not weaken, unlike other documented scenarios with equally classed pathogens with high mutation factors. Since documentation of the GMV began, mortality rates have tracked from 15.0% to 16.9% , with some exceptions. In a small town outside of Wuhan, a village hospital recently reported a 46.3% mortality rate among those infected. A recent study in China also pointed to a 61% mortality rate in patients over the age of 60.

With the fast mutation rate of the GMV, it is also possible for an host to become re-infected with a different strain of the same GMV, which may also be the cause of the “sudden death syndrome” occurring in china.

BLAST reference ID’s and dates:

The unaltered coronavirus was issued Reference ID: AVP 70833.1 by the National Center for Biotechnology Information at the U.S. Library of Medicine and was submitted by the Wuhan Virology Laboratory, Nanjing Command, Military branch, in 2018.

The present outbreak of GMV was uploaded to the National Center for Biotechnology Information in 01/2020 by the Shanghai Public Heath Clinical Center. It was issued Reference ID: QHD3418.1

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Mortality rate (MR):

This GMV has a current MR of 15.0% but this mortality rate is extracted from limited data availability. Therefore, that number is expected to increase over time. As mentioned, in one instance, a village in China reports a 46.3% mortality rate. Limited medical studies also point to MR of 50-61% in certain population segments, based on age and medical background. Clearly, fluctuation in MR exists, but under no reported circumstances has the MR decreased.

Incubation period (IP) and (ASC) asymptomatic carriers:

Symptom onset varies wildly in 98% of all carriers. Reports of SOS in 98% of carriers IP, initiate onset between 0-28 days from initial date of infection thru date of death. During the entirety of illness prior to any SOS, the IC sheds the virus continuously.

Remaining 2% of carriers are ASC and display no signs of the GMV, from initial infection, through DOD, though ASC shed the virus on par with symptomatic carriers and are highly contagious.

Signs of sickness (SOS), ranked by occurrence in test-subjects, through date of death (DOD):

Fever: 98%

Cough: 76%

Fatigue: 44%

Sputum production: 28%

Headache: 8%,

Neurological events: 8%

Haemoptysis: 5%

Diarrhea: 3%.

Infection rate (IR):

Per 100 people in contact with IC, 83 people or 83% will develop an infection. Therefore, 83 people will become IC and further the spread of the GMV.

Transmission routes: 7 known delivery methods:

(1) Aerosolized transmission (AT)

(2) Carrier to Surface to Disease Incubator (CSDI)

(3) Zoomorphic transmission (ZT)

(4) Passive transmission (PT)

(5) Vapor transmission (developing countries) (VT)

(6) Oral-fecal route (OFR)

Transmission scenarios:

Aerosolized:

Host breathes, virus releases from the host to the exterior environment immediately surrounding the host. The same occurs when host sneezes, spits, drools, coughs, urinates or has a bowel movement or any release of bodily fluid. Any air, vapors, gas, liquid, or solid matter discharge from an infected carrier leads to 83% re-infection rate among a group of 100 people.

Scenario:

Subject walking, standing, sitting in a hallway, elevator, stairwell, or office, which had an infected person previously present that breathed, coughed, or sneezed.

Host infected air disburses microscopic droplets into the air, which float for several minutes. One or more of the microscopic droplets gets on or into an eye. Subject blinks. Subjects eye lid pushes the virus off the surface of eye, down into the socket, and the virus washes down into subject’s tear duct. Subject is infected.

Further study of quarantined areas in China; show an increased MR in highly infected, heavily populated, or dense areas within tight population concentration areas. MR increased when a higher concentration of infected were grouped together; onset of premature mortality also increased with higher concentrations of infected, leading to one theory that an IC may become infected with separate virus mutations, which leads to an increased MR. Increased MR also occurs when pollution of air quality in geographic area is higher than normal; higher levels of pollution in air lower the air ceiling, thus limiting upward movement of air.

There is also some anecdotal evidence that suggests that the virus may be bi-phasic. Limited data suggests prior IC who have been pronounced GMV free, have relapsed with the virus several weeks later and experienced sudden, multiple organ failure and sudden death syndrome.

CSDI:

Scenario:

Carrier touches door handle, window, bathroom fixture, restaurant chair or table; or any known surface with hands, face, hair, bodily discharge, etc. Surfaces are now 100% contagious. Or carriers clothing touches any surface area and infection of surface area is confirmed. Incubator comes along, touches door handle, surface, or infected cloth material and the cycle of infection repeats itself. The uninfected become the new weapon transmitters, perpetuating the cycle of infection.

This GMV can live outside a person, in the air or on any surface, for a minimum of five (5) days, and a maximum of (30) days. Temperature, relative humidity, regular sanitization methods do not affect mass infected areas.

Zoomorphic:

Scenario:

Infected come into contact with household pets or outside infected animals. Note: In the initial stages of the outbreak, Chinese authorities ordered the mandatory slaughter of all household pets and wild animals in Wuhan, a city of 11 million residents, citing that the “virus was transferable between animal and human subjects”, indicating foreknowledge of a bio-weapon that was zoomorphic in nature. Slaughter of wild and household animals still occurring in China to date.

Vapor:

Coronavirus is present in fecal matter/ waste. Is present in sewage lines, toilets, bathrooms. With unclean bathroom areas, defective or open sewage areas, or ill-maintained sewage lines, transmission occurs when bio-waste pools in open areas or travels through leaky or open sewer pipes in transit to waste processing plants.

Fluctuation in temperature allows for liquid matter in solid waste or pure liquid matter to vaporize, leaking vapor trails into the air and into the populous areas of cities, causing viral blooms higher incidences of IC and an increased MR.

Oral-fecal:

Scenario:

GMV passes thru food handlers to customers & thru public toilet facilities with ease. GMV is not extinguished using normal sanitary measures, present in hospitals, restaurants and all public facilities.

Scenario for use in establishing initial R0 calculations, in the USA:

In the continental USA, hospital beds per 100 people in United States are reported at .07. indicating less than 1 hospital bed per 100 persons. Hospital beds include all of the following: inpatient beds available in public, private, general, specialized hospitals and rehabilitation centers.

The stable IR of 83% illustrates per 100 persons exposed to the GMV, 83 will become IC. With an established 24.3% hospitalization rate extrapolated from IR, it can be calculated that 20 people will need hospitalization. When our own system has just .07 beds available per 20 IC, it is clear how our own medical system can become overwhelmed and collapse, should this GMV hit hard and fast in major cities.

Without hospital care, MR among the IC, rises to 65-70%.

Societal implications in and outside of China:

China will start to show signs of economic deterioration by February 18th (+/-3). This, in turn, will lead to a potential global downturn of the worldwide economy. Oil prices will collapse, destabilizing the Middle East. Worldwide tourism will collapse, destabilizing the travel industry. Many industries will be adversely impacted, some will not recover. Import and exports with China will collapse, destabilizing local economies all over the world.

A direct effect of Chinese collapse is the immediate evaporation of medical manufacture of many medicines and hospital related products. This will have a negative impact on outcomes on both infected and non-infected patients. Although our stockpile of medicine and medical supplies is enough for short periods of time, supplies will exhaust quickly if this GMV unfolds with the rapidity it has displayed in other countries. As a result, those uninfected but with independent medical conditions may die as a secondary consequence to this GMV. As a result, potential overall mortality rate rises to 65%.

Timetable estimated infection rates (based on a R0 of 2.2)

Note: mortality rates are not projected in this model; only potential cases vs. those showing symptoms of infection. However, the current rate of mortality is approximately 15%.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT: 12,300 - 20,100 infected people Presenting symptoms: 158 - 168 cases. February 1st, 00:00 GMT: 18,900 - 30,900 infected people Presenting symptoms: 243 - 258 February 2nd, 00:00 GMT: 29,100 - 47,500 infected people Presenting symptoms: 374 - 397. If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate. These are the numbers: February 3rd, 00:00 GMT: 48,000 - 78,000 infected people Presenting symptoms: 617 - 655 February 4th, 00:00 GMT: 79,200 - 128,700 infected people Presenting symptoms: 1,018 - 1,080. If by 2/4, traveling between all countries is not completely stopped, and borders are not closed, modeling shows the pandemic will accelerate. These are advanced numbers representative of this factor: February 5th, 00:00 GMT: 139,000 - 226,500 infected people Presenting symptoms: 1,790 - 1,900. Note: from this point forward, modeling is adjusted for an R0 of 3.1. The advanced IC figures below are based on what can be expected when quarantine measures do not occur & the GMV spreads to the most overpopulated and underdeveloped countries in the world. With areas of high urban density and/or cramped living conditions, and severely underdeveloped to non-existent waste disposal infrastructure, containment becomes almost impossible.

It is therefore anticipated the GMV will disproportionately affect higher amounts of people in places such as: India, Africa, Middle Eastern states and SE Asia.

From 2/5 forward, the GMV no longer can be contained, if quarantine is not implemented, in major cities across the world.

The GMV will spread at an increased rate as follows: Feb 6th:345,000 infected with 3,600 presenting symptoms Feb 7th:690,000 infected with 7,500 presenting symptoms Feb 8th: 1,435,000 / 15,600 Feb 9th: 2,980,000 / 27,456 Feb 10th: 6,240,000 / 57,100 Feb 11th: 12,979,000 / 118,100 Feb 12th: 27,990,000 / 245,600 Feb 13th: 58,220,000 / 509,600 Feb 14th:121,970,000 /1,060,000 Feb 15th:253,697,000 /2,204,800

From February 15th and forward, it is irrelevant to predict the IC and MR, given the potential scenario. Given the volume of IC and critically ill patients, it is predictable that multiple health systems across the globe may begin to fail during this time. In this scenario, WHO modeling predicts a MR of 66%, although this individual model predicts a MR of 65%.

Authorities in the first major cities outside of South East Asia will likely attempt quarantines by 2/15 (+/-6).

China is expected to be in the beginning stages of social and economic collapse on 2/18 (+/-6). Intelligence from Hong Kong and China has provided data to suggest that unless the GMV mutates to a weaker strand, the results will be cataclysmic. It is estimated among worldwide intelligence agencies the number of infected will total 4.5 billion by April 5th, 2020.

During February, depending upon the GMV vector, there is also the possibility of the first US cities along the West and North-west coast being in declared states of emergency and/or quarantine, with other areas to follow not long thereafter – lasting until general quarantine is put into effect.

Sixteen (16) quarantine internment facilities have already been set up to hold the infected, until general quarantine of the public occurs.

Initial burn out of first stage infections are expected to occur by April 2020. However, second stage infections (infections primarily outside of China), which will have started in different locales in different time periods and will carry the secondary stages of this pandemic forward well in to 2020, likely into November or December. Third and fourth stages of infection will continue through April 2021, with residual and ancillary weaves occurring until first quarter 2023.

Conclusion:

There might be slight variations in this pandemic modeling, if some countries implement some travel restrictions early and/or implement localized quarantines. However, anything except total quarantine will fail. We can hope for the best; that the virus will mutate to a less viral strain or that the virus will burn itself out earlier than expected. However, based on the data thus far, this model is predicting outcomes correctly. If quarantine measures are not put into place, the results will be cataclysmic. Of the 253,697,000 predicted infected worldwide, it is projected that the potential MR will be 164,000,000 by the time eventual GMV burnout occurs, absent national, regional or localized quarantine measures and rapid developing treatments. If quarantines are enforced, travel is banned; potential first stage burn-out is anticipated for mid-April, 2020. Second stage infections thru further viral mutations in the GMV will occur at this point, contributing to the overall MR and creating tertiary waves. Additional waves are predicted to occur throughout 2022, with residual through first quarter, 2023.