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  • Walter Muller

Bear Trap: Have Ukraine forces have duped by the Russian Army?

Updated: Mar 1, 2022

As I review photographic intel and sort thru recorded interrogations coming out of Ukraine, it all doesn’t quite add up with me. Because it appears the Russian Army is doing it’s very best to throw every outdated piece of military machinery it has at the Ukraine army in the first wave.

Adding to this strangeness, are waves of young & inexperienced regular army Russian soldiers & Spetznaz who have no idea why they’re in Ukraine. Further, reports indicate many of these young men were quickly conscripted; given minimal training; were told they were participating in military exercises and then promptly shipped off to Ukraine to fight a war they had no idea was even happening, because of Russian censorship. And then there are the captured Russian Special Forces - captured, interrogated Spetnaz claim they were told of a three day operation at most, and provided with minimal supplies. And btw, those same Spetznaz were captured raiding Ukrainian food markets, trying to get something to eat.

Excuse me, Spetznaz - Russian Special Forces - getting caught? In supermarket isles? What the hell is this? This is completely absurd! Never mind, our own special forces wouldn't be caught dead forging food from supermarkets after 3 short days of battle.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian citizens totally devoid of any military training approach, disable & blow up tanks and other heavily advanced armored Russian Army vehicles with absolutely minimal effort, using primitive methods; Molotov cocktails, improvised bombs, while the response from the Russian Army at best,is minimal.

Going one step further, the same Ukrainians gleefully record these tank attacks on their cell phones & post the pictures and videos to social media. Social media! You can even see civilians step en masse out in front of fully armored columns, bringing them to a grinding halt; making them easy prey for Ukrainian drones or civilian sabotage. What the hell is this?

Further telling are Russian EW flying in regional airspace - but not blocking out cell phone signals! Not blocking out comms? With an invasion? Really?

On the surface this this seems to be the gang that couldn't shoot straight. But I think there's more to it then just that.

Meanwhile, one Ukrainian farmer actually drove off with a fully armed tank attached to his tractor. A tank! And then posted it to social media. From his cell phone!

Does any of this make any sense to you? No? Good! Because, it shouldn’t. Because this isn’t how war works.

And given the facts so far at hand, I’ve got a Q for you:

Q: If you were invading a country, why would you take your most inexperienced, new recruits, place them in outdated machinery and throw them first at your enemy?

A: Simple:

Like cattle in the slaughterhouse; an invading army always throws the first wave into the meat grinder to observe what comes out the other side – IE, how the defenders respond.

But to be fair (as terrible as the practice is) they're also not the first army to throw meat into the grinder. War is Hell. And we – the Americans – executed the same strategy at D-Day with our first waves of troops against the entrenched German defenders at Normandy, 1944 (just like many long dead Empires before us). General Eisenhower knew there was no way that experienced veterans were going to walk off PT boats into fields of machine gun and mortar fire, facing a projected 50% mortality rate. In fact, he knew they’d flat out refuse.

So what did Eisenhower do? He assembled battalions full of green, inexperienced soldiers and knowingly threw them to the German defenders in the first wave. After the first wave, intelligence proved weak spots and strong positions in the German lines of defense. And as the following waves on the beaches progressed, so in progressed the older, more experienced battle hardened veterans unto the beaches of Normandy. It’s a tactic that works very well - you test & weaken the defenders with your least skilled recruits; then mop up the battle with hardened veterans.

And its exactly what the Russian Army has been doing for the last few days.

Of course, it would be foolhardy to think the Russian Army isn't taking advantage of this. Because the invaders possess eye-in-the-sky ability to observe these patterns of Ukrainian response, estimate actual battle damage vs estimated damage, effectiveness of rocket and drone strikes, etc. Because they do. And it would also be foolhardy to think that the Russian Army isn't compiling massive amounts of geo-data taken from every single picture and cell phone video posted to social media by a Ukrainian citizen blowing up tanks & armor, stopping columns trying to advance. Because they are. And they're taking the time now, to plot out those geo-points on a map in order to pinpoint hot areas of resistance. Believe me, they’re watching every single battle and reaction as it occurs via satellite, collecting & analyzing data, preparing for the main thrust into the Ukraine.

Right now, the Russian Army and its allies are busy gathering actionable intelligence on Ukrainian movements, in preparation for the hard hitting forthcoming waves. In fact, the next wave, I suspect, will come from Belarus in the next 24-72 hours (March 2-5); will be made up of battle hardened warriors, outfitted in the latest Russian technological weaponry, with rolling stock and armor (additionally, forces from Belarus appear to be staging troops for an invasion thru the tiny country of Moldova, into the Ukraine). And thats when this war will be absolutely brutal - the total opposite of what easily rolled into the Ukraine over the last few days.

When that light switch goes off, the friendly war which we’ve all witnessed on social media – a war without Russian soldiers shooting or detaining suspicious civilians and where regular Ukrainians can record on their cell phoned a drive-by, dropping Molotov cocktails on Russian tanks without recourse – that kind of friendly, optimistic feel good war - that kind of war is over.

Meanwhile, I believe the Russian Army has lulled Ukrainian forces into a Bear Trap; a false sense of security, making them believe this whole war will be nothing short of a cake walk. When in fact, its about to get really ugly on many fronts.

But with the war broadcast on social media, the reaction of the outside world has been prompt - and politicians unexpectedly cut Russia off from SWIFT; a hazardous blow by bankers, pushing Putin into a desperate place, facing an imminent collapse of Russia's economy.

Suddenly isolated, Putin finds himself caught in the same Bear trap. And now, his only option for reaction is the only response he has left – an escalation to nuclear war. So it was no surprise, when Russian Nukes went hot a few days ago (see this related post on the sudden activation & redeployment of Russia's Zircon Nuclear missiles:

After all, when you’ve got nothing left to loose, then you’ve got everything in the world to gain. And from where Putin is sitting - if I were him right now - I’d come out mad, fighting like hell too. Because looking out from the place he’s in, the outlook for a future Russia suddenly looks very grim. Putin believes if he loses this war, the whole of Mother Russia will be sliced up among victor NATO states. Now, if that were to happen, his legacy would be ruined, going down as the leader who witnessed the final dissolution of the Russian state. Clearly, not something Putin would strive to be remembered for as a leader. And clearly, not what Putin will allow to happen.

And so, when you’re looking at the world from that angle, what do you have left to loose?

Frankly, not much.

And after this sudden nuclear escalation, the odds of the dissolution of Russia have increased further. So if Putin isn’t victorious; especially if he doesn’t back down from the nuclear option (which I don’t see him doing), he's done. After all, the world doesn't want a madman at the button.

So right now, thats whats at stake here - that’s what this war in Ukraine honestly means for Putin & Russia. And thats also why I believe this whole war up to this point is has largely been a ruse - it purposefully arranged to lull the defenders into believing that the Russian Army is no longer competent or able to fight. While no one can be certain of the true state of military readiness in the Russian Army, the prospect that the Russian Army is collapsing at the gates of Kyiv is just too much to imagine.

And so I believe what comes next will be completely barbaric; it’s when the gloves come off; and the wholesale butchering of Ukraine & it's citizenry begins. In front of the world on social media. Because it is extremely clear that Russia must win this war at all costs and there is no other viable option. And nothing - nothing is going to stand in the way of that victory; Soldier, Mother or innocent infant Child.

Images of those future incidents – if they make social media - will be extremely hard to digest. And enrage the world.

Which leaves me with another Q I’d like to ask you:

Which Bear in which trap will attempt to strike first?

And when will formal declarations of war from NATO states come? Because odds are, NATO won't sit by idly and watch Ukraine get slaughtered on social media. Because rest assured, those declaration of war will be forthcoming.

But from which state will the declaration of war will come first?




My bet is Poland, since Poland is now a de-facto Ukraine fighter base, allowing Ukrainian fighter pilots to fly donated fighter jets from its own airspace directly into Ukraine airspace - but Moldova is also a possible first, if the Belarusian army and Russians invade via Moldova first.

Will this happen before the slaughter of Kyiv? Or after?

Idk - and although I certainly don't wish harm to anyone in the region, unfortunately, I have a feeling were all about to find out.

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