proposal for independence to be heard in the Duma
Generals on both sides of the border are working hard to strategically outflank one another in preparation for an all out lightning fast invasion – but without moving any of their pieces into enemy territory. While the developing military stand-off may seem intense – and at times surreal - in realty, it’s no less intense then the situation immediately preceding WWI and WWII. After all, the region has always been a powder keg, historically speaking.
In Russia, the Duma (their version of our congress) is scheduled to vote Feb 14th, on two separate motions recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk – two regions inside Ukraine that are trying to form two separate, independent states. One motion is sponsored by the Communist Party and one is sponsored by the United Russia party. I've been told the Communist Party motion will fail; the URP motion will pass. The CP motion will fail largely because of its idealistic nature - but frankly, its really more of a posturing move anyway, akin to decrees politicians make worldwide to grab the attention of media. But the URP motion will pass, because it hits all the legal check marks it strikes, and was developed after consulting with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Now, Ukraine knows Russia needs to legally recognize the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk because once the two regions are recognized as independent states, all an independent state has to do is invite them in to provide support via Russian military. Putin believes the Ukraine will move against Luhansk & Donetsk once their independence is recognized by Russia - and immediately placing a clear military presence in the independent republics would prevent this. But the Ukraine could also potentially circumvent potential succession through enacting martial law - if evidence of "terrorist" or "subversive" acts spontaneously occur before the Russian vote on 2/14. In which case, Ukraine will continue to hold territory. For the record, if activity occurs between now (2/11) and the 14th, you'd have good reason to doubt its true spontaneity.
But no matter the outcome, it's clearly a loosing situation for the world at large. Because no matter who comes out on top in this scenario, tensions will rise in the region due to the pressure from outside global powers.
In the meantime, Russai shipped over 2,000 trains loaded to the hilt with materials, equipment & troops to the Ukraine. On the NATO/EU/US side, we've been running virtual sky-trains into Ukraine, offloading tons of military cargo. While ours can't begin to eclipse Russian supply efforts, some of the flights in recent days are as follows: CMB312, CMB313, CMB314, CMB316, CMB315, CMB333, CMB331, CMB330. Additionally, he UK has sent around 20 cargo jets loaded down with military aid, and now Poland & Germany are joining in the aid effort.
In the meantime, a few interesting developments have occurred:
~the Police in Sweden are sending out emergency military deployment orders, in case of war.
~All commercial airlines have stopped flights into Ukraine as of February 14th.
~Russia has sent its most advanced nuclear submarine forces (the Rostov-na-Donu) into the Black Sea
~NATO has started deploying AIR POLICE missions.
~more US troops are arriving in Poland as I write this post
Meanwhile, the US played a very interesting game of chicken in disputed territorial/international waters off the pacific islands (his in itself is not unusual but the corresponding information is):
A Russian frigate detected a US submarine, ordered it to surface and depart promptly. Of course, the submarine refused. The Russian Navy replied by carrying out what they describe as "corresponding measures" to encourage the submarine to leave the disputed area of engagement.
Now what is really interesting, is Russia released detail of the submariners response to their "corresponding measures". In response to Russia's corresponding measures, the US submarine reportedly used a device that split the image of the submarine on Russian sonar into two distinct separate locations - which would seem to suggest to me that the submarine was fired upon by the Russian navy. It was also reported that the US sub retreated from the area at maximum speed - again, possibly indicating some type of evasive action taken. While nothing can be confirmed at this time, as far as I am aware this is also the first time any diplomatic press release has included any specific mention of an on board submarine EW device used in an international standoff.
So, what do all these events add up to?
Potentially, a prelude to war. And as we move farther down the pike, political alliances are forming; clear battle lines are being drawn - with politicians from more countries continuing to heighten the rhetoric and encourage the potential coming fight.
Meanwhile, in the midst of this WWIII-seriousness, I thought it also worth nothing that Canada is clearly blowing out of proportion its own problems back at home. With that small contingent of freedom-convoy-truckers in it's backyard, the Prime Minister may actually declare Martial Law. Which absolutely makes no sense - because the police can quash this protest single-handedly.
But then again, perhaps its an excuse. Perhaps Canada see's the nuclear writing on the wall, and surmises declaring martial law now would be best, in preparation for the coming civil unrest. Idk. But now that I'm thinking about it, perhaps Trudeau fleeing the capitol city was a good excuse to head to a Canadian bunker. Eh?
The problem is, the rest of us won't know the truth until its too late.