The path To War: Part III; Updates

"Individual developments, when linked together lead to a larger picture of where the world is heading".

Foreword: In a prior post, I described 3/11 as significant date to Russian sources - indicating the world was going to change dramatically on 3/11. And while the majority of the data pointed at a major event, some pieces of the puzzle didn't fit together. Still, 3/11 was a serious date - at least in their eyes. Then late on 3/10, receipt of an unusual FSB logo; altered, and with a date of 3.11.22.

3/11; the next day FSB was raided by Putin's security service; multiple factors precipitating the raid; analysts did not correctly predict the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, scores of high ranking officials were arrested for money laundering (forged receipts for equipment for Ukraine), millions of dollars siphoned off into Swiss bank accounts. Moral of the story - the world did change on 3/11 - but it was world according to a different pair of Russian eyes.

Intelligence and analysis provides critical information; clues to unknown events which may lay ahead. But the end-user divines context, making it an imperfect science.

Developments:

~ Prior to the start of the war, diplomats from Russia hop-scotched around the globe, reaching out to Cuba, Ecuador, Venezuela and other similar regimes, looking to strengthen alliances & offer military and/or economic aid. Russia also sought out new alliances with oil producing countries, thru promises of military & economic aid. Look for increased influence of South American and Latin-American allies.

~ Iran bombed a US embassy complex in Iraq. And while it first appeared to be a straightforward Iranian missile strike on a US diplomatic compound, Mossad intel orchestrated the pre-planned attack. Mossad used front groups sympathetic to the Iranian cause to leak coordinates of a supposed training camp, for Iranians to extract their revenge over losses in a prior Mossad targeting campaign. The ploy worked. The Iranians believe they hit a Mossad training camp - not an unoccupied US diplomatic compound.

~ Prior to the Ukraine invasion, Iran and Russia were negotiating placement of nuclear missiles on Iranian soil. When/if completed, a partnership of this kind could potentially change the balance of power in the Middle East. Prior to nuclear negotiations, Russian military advisors also provided technical expertise on the construction of underground bunker complexes, missile storage facilities, tunnels and drone launch-complexes. Note: if a deal is inked, a clear indicator would be the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off the oil supply to the West.

~Analyst modeling of Western responses did not anticipate immediate, far reaching economic sanctions. The scope of sanctions crippled the financial end of Russian strategic partnerships. Consequently, the Russian economy & military is in shambles - and what remains must be methodically conserved. Which begs the Q - can those new strategic partnerships be bankrolled now?

Sanctions impacting Russia so significantly that there is actually a new plan afoot for the military to harvest timber from Ukrainian forests - and to sell that timber to pay for the cost of war. Clearly, the might of a logging military is not a well thought out plan. But this is representative of the sudden level of economic destruction & desperation Russian military planners face. Consequently, this is also why Putin's actions will escalate sooner rather then later, as Russia has been eviscerated economically.

photo: underground missile base, Iran. Underground drone bases also exist.

In light of Western reactions, Russian Analysts theorize the US has already declared war via use of broad sanctions & massive weapon shipments to Ukraine.

~ Watch for the Chief Spokesman of the Russian Military, Major General Konashenkov (or another similar bureaucrat) to host a briefing at which he declares the European and Western powers have declared total “economic war”. The Russian POV will illustrate Putin is not the aggressor – and the only reason this war has not moved to the “hot stage” is because Putin is a benevolent actor & has not given the green light to move into kinetic war. Of course, this will be presented in such a way that Putin is seen attempting to save the world from WWIII – while the West is presented as working hard to bring the world to the precipice of global nuclear conflict. News of this briefing may or may not make the media - and as you know, much of what I write here does not make MSM reporting.

Russian analysts have given their superiors an estimation of a 2-3 week period for this plan to work.

~ Hopes for quick victory in Ukraine died weeks ago. The reality of a prolonged, drawn out war is inevitable. But analysts have predicted if the right set of circumstances avail themselves - that Putin can win this war by negotiating a new treaty that both solidifies the Russian future and decimates NATO.

~Within 2-3 days of the aforementioned briefing, Putin will follow with a major publicized speech, wherein the modern nodes of war are specifically mentioned: cyber attacks, development of biological weapons (think alleged Ukraine labs) & preparation of biological attacks, training of terrorists, massive economic sanctions, etc.

In this speech, Putin will clearly state that he does not seek war, but that Western leaders keep pushing Russia towards the inevitability of war, despite his best efforts to avoid a war at all costs. In this speech, he is preparing Russian citizenry for the inevitable – that Russia will respond with all it's might - to confront the Western threat to the sovereignty of Russia. In the same speech, he will indicate that if all sanctions are lifted and outside assistance to Ukraine is completely halted, Russia will end the Ukrainian war.

Presented in this manner, the plan is for the Russian people will realize that there is no choice but to escalate the war, in order to preserve peace. In an ideal post-speech scenario, Russian analysts predict Western powers will seek immediate negotiation with Russia, while Putin initially ignores Biden but simultaneously reaches out to regime friendly leaders: IE, Hungary, the Middle East, Asia, China, friendly Baltic States to broker further support & political backing - should the need arise to pressure Western powers to sit down at the negotiating table.

From speech to conclusion of negotiations, the timetable is 2-3 weeks. If the timetable is not met - if the Ukraine and US hold out - this is when circumstances in Russia may spiral out of control. Analysts expect if the war is not settled by June, domestic turmoil accelerates precipitously.

~ Meanwhile, the US & UK preparing for a total blockade of Russian imports and exports - via Panama Canal & Straits of Gibraltar. The likelihood of a blockade of the Panama Canal enforced by the US Navy is almost a foregone conclusion - and the blockade of the Straits of Gibraltar enforced by the UK. Whether or not this is approached in slow, gradual stages or as an outright blockade of Russia is an unknown, as this is a political decision made by world leaders - not analysts. Watch for developments along this line. But current plans indicate a total naval blockade of Russia as an end product.

~ Russian analysts plan for a Russian-enforced no fly-zone over Ukraine and/or regional territories or Baltic states; EU/US/UK aircraft violating the no-fly zone will be shot down by Belarus/Russia.

~ If negotiations with the West fail or stall, Russian-sympathetic countries will pressure the West via statements made by OPEC or oil producing socialist/dictatorial regimes (IE, South American/Latin Allies) to Western powers, implying Ukraine must submit to Russian demands.

~ One avenue used to pressure Western leaders into inhospitable negotiations; leaning on oil producing countries to refuse to sell oil.

~ Another potential avenue of retribution - threatening dollar hegemony. China quietly making moves to trade the Yuan for oil, threatening the petrodollar. With the Russian economy on life support, Russia may call on China to drive turmoil in global markets as way to bring retribution for economic suffering. Or threaten to use China as a back channel to drive the US back to the negotiating table. While loosing dollar dominance seems unlikely, in desperate times - desperate plans are often made.

~ Cuba is a wild card. Cuba may demand the immediate withdrawal of all US troops and assets. Although this sounds completely NUTS, if Russia manages to provide financial support to Cuba, it could be within the realm of possibility. This could be used as a way to throw the US off balance during negotiations or as away to divert strategic forces from the Baltic states, at a time when they are needed there.

~ State actors/politicians/sovereign allies "friendly to Russia" may demand Western leaders consider Putin’s outlandish terms for negotiation/settlement (surrender of Ukraine; cessation of war at all costs, etc). Watch for suspect statements - you'll divine who is on the Russian payroll very easily. The goal of enemy actors is to re-frame dialogue in such a way that Russia appears to have offered the West completely viable alternatives, prior to final escalation to global conflict/WWIII.

Initial demands will be framed in such a manner that it is impossible for Ukraine or Western leaders to agree to said terms without loosing face and therefore risking domestic re-election prospects/political turmoil/massive losses along party lines. Analysts have predicted this scenario will force the West back to the table & into new negotiations altogether, wherein a new international treaty is hammered out allowing Western political leaders to posture it as a win, while is is clearly a loss - the treaty preventing any further NATO expansion of territory and decimating Ukraine sovereignty.

~ Should the West continue to refuse demands of settlement, analysts expect potential Russian military targets in North-Eastern Poland and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia) will be publicly listed by Putin or his military – along with an urgent appeal for civilians to leave targeted areas post-haste. Targeting with either a conventional hyper-sonic missile OR a tactical hyper-sonic nuke is expected. Note: Russia is war-gaming use of conventional missiles & tactical nukes for north eastern Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (see below photo).

photo: conference illustrating targets.

~ Analysts believe upcoming EU state elections & the further threats of escalation – will influence EU state leaders in weaker political positions to distance themselves from US/UK actions and/or the NATO alliance. Some leaders of NATO countries may decide to declare neutrality - in violation of their own NATO treaty - or elect to suspend/withdraw from NATO altogether.

~ Putin realizes if he looses this war, there is no space for Russia in post-war politics - Russia is cut up and split among NATO states. Therefore, Putin realizes he must win either diplomatically or thru kinetic war. He has no other choice. The reality is that simple.

~ Russian losses proving too great in battlefield conditions. Military can't loose armor or troops at this rate; sending in replacements & resupplying existing troops with new weaponry is both a logistics & resupply issue.

~ Military shifting to increased use of long range missiles to attack targets and cut losses; more indiscriminate targeting of civilian targets to follow. Long range shelling also used as terror weapon. Putin to become more desperate if war continues and resources thin; attempts to force end post-haste with indiscriminate shelling, use of hyper-sonic missiles will increase.

~ The longer the war, the greater chance the use of advanced missiles or tactical nukes - both causing indiscriminate civilian losses. Military has attempted to limit casualties up until recently. But as the war continues and losses accelerate, use of these weapons will increase.

Hyper-sonic missiles are particularly deadly, as they fly at speeds making interception nearly impossible. See an earlier editorial discussing the movement of Russian hyper-sonic, Zircon nuclear missiles: https://www.whiskyandwar.com/post/eu-much-closer-to-nuclear-war-then-anyone-will-admit-here-s-the-missile-that-will-bring-it

Updates on above subjects, post publishing date:

Flights from Moscow, 3/16/22

~ Russian military transports - Tupolev jets started shuttling supplies and VIP's out of Moscow this morning, destination appearing to be Ural mountain bunker complexes - their NORAD or Mt. Weather - command and control in the event of nuclear war - and consequently, where politicians would ride out any disaster scenarios.

But here's a Q about the above event:

Q: If an imminent disaster scenario is approaching, why was sensitive flight data kept visible to the public? IE, if intent of coordinated emergency flights are to protect political figures, turning off transponders to scrub flight data is standard. But this was not the case. So therefore we must assume there was planned intent behind this data leak...

Why was this flight data left public for discovery?

I surmise the departure of a cluster of jets heading back to the UAE at the same time jets appeared heading to the Ural mountain bunker complex, may have been the reasons. Earlier, I noted a flurry of Russian brokered backroom power & oil deals - and a possible nuclear weapons deal with Iran. Therefore, this data leak may be an attempt to obscure the actual movement of middle-eastern officials to and from Russia (rumors indicate representatives from OPEC may have struck a deal to exchange physical gold for oil).

~ Relocation into secure long term storage - On 3/13, Putin ordered the immediate evacuation of items of proprietary nature; cultural items of significant importance; one of a kind items; machine dyes & templates, etc transported into Ural mountain complexes - 3 days prior to today's supposed transport of VIP's into same complexes.

3/18/22

Putin gives major speech, highlighting the exact scenarios discussed herein.

Update, 3/18:

Today, Russia claiming use of hyper-sonic missiles on Ukrainian depot (use of hyper-sonic missiles was mentioned here a week ago) Reuters article here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-uses-hypersonic-missiles-strike-ukraine-arms-depot-2022-03-19/

London, first movement of Royal Family in 285 years:

The Royal family has moved out of London for the first time in almost 300 years. https://www.marieclaire.com/celebrity/royals/the-queen-has-permanently-moved-to-windsor-castle/

This move advised by protection command: concerns Putin may target London as a way of seeking retribution against the extreme economic sanctions imposed. To put the nature of this move in proper perspective, the Royal family has kept court in some form, in Buckingham palace since 1837. This is the first time in almost 300 years that the Royal family has completely vacated the London residence. Keep in mind the Royal Family lived in London thru WWI and WWII and even thru the Nazi blitz of London in 1941. They never left.

The move to Windsor Castle is a simple mathematical calculation; it is 27 miles outside of London and out of the blast radius of concentional warhead or a low yield tactical nuke (If you read prior articles, you know Putin's preferred first strike targets are Poland, London & Brussels).

FYI, for purposes of comparison, the calculated blast radius and after effects of a slightly smaller 150 kiloton warhead (Zircons carry a 200 kiloton warhead) on a city similar in size to London, such as NYC, can be found here: https://www.atomicarchive.com/science/scenarios/newyork/index.html

Update/ 2/25/22:

Russians framing the western actions as "total economic war", first mentioned here on 3/3/22. Almost 4 weeks later in an article on 3/25, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov - mentions the same concept - "total war" - publicly, for the first time: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/lavrov-says-west-declared-russia-hybrid-total-war/2545758

Iranian/Russian missile deal:

Reports: finalized - Russians have agreed (at least on paper) to put nukes on Iranian soil. Will this actually come to fruition?

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This is the current state of affairs. While the situation is in a constant state of flux and no one can state with 100% certainty that all of these developments will influence the outcome OR continue to progress along their expected lines of progress, it is also not an exaggeration to suggest many of these developments may lead to the eventual expansion into a world war, with Russia striking first.